Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 99095.427781 104423.789067 109745.296001 115455.204202 121404.775229 127417.723472 133950.395640
2025-07-20 91267.993341 99494.442946 107932.665752 117224.226788 127157.114658 137446.298856 148899.106906
2025-07-27 85197.608699 95416.153155 106121.355256 118150.288839 131267.126297 145113.474042 160811.860116
2025-08-03 79994.246812 91658.832750 104098.319918 118314.577403 134073.532720 150969.196561 170414.424845
2025-08-10 75896.921947 88724.808724 102619.245175 118733.152008 136850.451690 156534.262351 179479.278715
2025-08-17 72211.213647 85969.056279 101082.189088 118842.704296 139065.939081 161298.826380 187509.384487
2025-08-24 69756.764721 84424.942738 100743.637361 120149.031228 142495.678584 167321.100451 196880.326138
2025-08-31 66730.129704 82049.070496 99299.947316 120046.297360 144193.749011 171285.507459 203845.699977
2025-09-07 64969.934344 81040.415125 99337.713680 121567.094550 147689.801791 177256.788631 213087.993079
2025-09-14 63088.073414 79786.397493 98999.894488 122569.503419 150520.296666 182420.833441 221383.454222
2025-09-21 60891.179287 78056.304496 98011.322759 122722.306533 152286.069976 186299.644026 228156.645073
2025-09-28 58858.601649 76439.150917 97080.153166 122871.886303 153988.672023 190062.843256 234772.292131
2025-10-05 57819.356922 76012.173603 97570.595582 124735.838731 157766.130871 196329.620001 244438.709581
2025-10-12 56697.796219 75437.007467 97845.117479 126313.362428 161191.263511 202191.062002 253664.601338
2025-10-19 55317.351930 74483.169819 97608.417893 127226.610029 163785.111957 207049.648852 261704.267510
2025-10-26 53651.087788 73108.659538 96798.107460 127384.789945 165419.530877 210730.919574 268322.663430
2025-11-02 52217.677939 71979.434777 96248.064537 127825.546234 167370.857688 214780.122135 275389.006606
2025-11-09 50711.467842 70705.888155 95471.093337 127941.016827 168887.292121 218280.557942 281784.810811
2025-11-16 49869.517349 70262.405320 95719.176026 129327.952122 171978.231593 223715.614235 290574.835376
2025-11-23 48400.795420 68951.846730 94818.606648 129218.823049 173163.131946 226783.318199 296446.845445
2025-11-30 47761.110138 68712.606169 95276.971444 130833.489124 176520.305489 232554.202767 305695.339730
2025-12-07 46917.237464 68172.584271 95321.811006 131897.652707 179169.647450 237446.933634 313872.838649
2025-12-14 45732.497711 67139.345632 94691.695525 132059.860823 180647.092826 240863.015300 320210.176956